Western Strikers 2–2 Para Hills Knights

Western Strikers

FT

2 – 2

Para Hills Knights

8/7/2021

South Australia State League 1 · Round 16Carnegie Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers27%

×Draw23%

Para Hills Knights50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western StrikersExpected goals in this matchPara Hills Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.83

Western Strikers

1.29

Para Hills Knights

1.83

Para Hills Knights creates 42% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

1.32

creates per match

1.53

2.14

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Western Strikers

1.32

Para Hills Knights

1.53

allows per match

Western Strikers

2.14

Para Hills Knights

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par

Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

Para Hills Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw

50%

Western Strikers or Para Hills Knights

77%

Draw or Para Hills Knights

73%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+

11%

Para Hills Knights wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals

72%

Western Strikers 2+ goals

37%

Western Strikers 3+ goals

14%

Para Hills Knights 1+ goals

84%

Para Hills Knights 2+ goals

54%

Para Hills Knights 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)

35%

Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Para Hills Knights away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + Para Hills Knights defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Para Hills Knights attack 1.53 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Western Strikers scores more

27%

level

23%

Para Hills Knights scores more

50%

Para Hills Knights at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Para Hills Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff