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Western Strikers vs Cumberland United — South Australia State League 1 2021

Western Strikers
Western Strikers
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cumberland United
Cumberland United
4/27/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 8Regency Park Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers33%
×Draw24%
Cumberland United44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Strikers
1.45
Cumberland United
1.70

Cumberland United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 46 away

creates per match

Western Strikers
1.32
Cumberland United
1.26

allows per match

Western Strikers
2.14
Cumberland United
1.57

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par
Cumberland United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

Cumberland United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw
56%
Western Strikers or Cumberland United
76%
Draw or Cumberland United
67%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+
15%
Cumberland United wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals
77%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
42%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
18%
Cumberland United 1+ goals
82%
Cumberland United 2+ goals
51%
Cumberland United 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)
43%
Cumberland United (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Cumberland United away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + Cumberland United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cumberland United attack 1.26 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Western Strikers scores more
33%
level
24%
Cumberland United scores more
44%

Cumberland United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cumberland United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Strikers vs Cumberland United

Western Strikers and Cumberland United drew 2-2 in South Australia State League 1 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Regency Park Pitch 1 in Adelaide.