Western Strikers 1–7 Adelaide Blue Eagles

Western Strikers

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Adelaide Blue Eagles

7/27/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 20Regency Park Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers28%

×Draw22%

Adelaide Blue Eagles51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western StrikersExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Blue Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.02

Western Strikers

1.45

Adelaide Blue Eagles

2.02

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 53 away

1.32

creates per match

1.89

2.14

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Western Strikers

1.32

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.89

allows per match

Western Strikers

2.14

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

Adelaide Blue Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw

49%

Western Strikers or Adelaide Blue Eagles

78%

Draw or Adelaide Blue Eagles

72%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+

12%

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals

77%

Western Strikers 2+ goals

42%

Western Strikers 3+ goals

18%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals

87%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals

60%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)

35%

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 1.89 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Western Strikers scores more

28%

level

22%

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more

51%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff