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Western Stima vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
4 – 1
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
12/11/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 14Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Western Stima47%
×Draw26%
Zoo Kericho27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.48
Zoo Kericho
1.06

Western Stima creates 40% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 52 away

creates per match

Western Stima
1.02
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Western Stima
1.23
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
73%
Western Stima or Zoo Kericho
74%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
53%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
23%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
77%
Western Stima 2+ goals
43%
Western Stima 3+ goals
19%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
65%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
29%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
63%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 1.02 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Western Stima defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Western Stima scores more
47%
level
26%
Zoo Kericho scores more
27%

Western Stima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Western Stima 4–1 Zoo Kericho

Western Stima beat Zoo Kericho 4-1 in FKF Premier League on December 11, 2019.

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.