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Western Stima vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
1 – 0
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
3/6/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Western Stima42%
×Draw29%
Wazito FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.23
Wazito FC
0.99

Western Stima creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 77 away

creates per match

Western Stima
1.02
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

Western Stima
1.23
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
70%
Western Stima or Wazito FC
71%
Draw or Wazito FC
58%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
18%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
71%
Western Stima 2+ goals
35%
Western Stima 3+ goals
13%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
63%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
26%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
58%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 1.02 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Western Stima defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Western Stima scores more
42%
level
29%
Wazito FC scores more
30%

Western Stima at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Stima vs Wazito FC

Western Stima beat Wazito FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.