Western Stima 1–2 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

Western Stima

FT

1 – 2

Ulinzi Stars

L. Otieno 28'

M. Bikobwa 65'

M. Masuta 54'

7/17/2021

FKF Premier League · Round 25Nakuru Show ASK Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Western Stima32%

×Draw31%

Ulinzi Stars37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western StimaExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.05

Western Stima

0.96

Ulinzi Stars

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 146 away

0.98

creates per match

0.86

1.25

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Western Stima

0.98

Ulinzi Stars

0.86

allows per match

Western Stima

1.25

Ulinzi Stars

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw

63%

Western Stima or Ulinzi Stars

69%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

68%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+

12%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals

62%

Western Stima 2+ goals

25%

Western Stima 3+ goals

7%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

65%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

28%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)

47%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 0.98 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + Western Stima defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Western Stima scores more

32%

level

31%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

37%

Ulinzi Stars at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

L. Otieno

54'

M. Masuta

65'

M. Bikobwa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff