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Western Stima vs St Joseph FC — Super League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
2 – 2
St Joseph FC
St Joseph FC
3/11/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Western Stima58%
×Draw25%
St Joseph FC18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.63
St Joseph FC
0.78

Western Stima creates 109% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Western Stima
2.00
St Joseph FC
1.06

allows per match

Western Stima
0.50
St Joseph FC
1.25

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
St Joseph FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

St Joseph FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
82%
Western Stima or St Joseph FC
75%
Draw or St Joseph FC
42%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
31%
St Joseph FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
80%
Western Stima 2+ goals
48%
Western Stima 3+ goals
22%
St Joseph FC 1+ goals
54%
St Joseph FC 2+ goals
18%
St Joseph FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
76%
St Joseph FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

St Joseph FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 2.00 + St Joseph FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

St Joseph FC attack 1.06 + Western Stima defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Western Stima scores more
58%
level
25%
St Joseph FC scores more
18%

Western Stima at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Western Stima 2–2 St Joseph FC

Western Stima and St Joseph FC drew 2-2 in Super League on March 11, 2018.