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Western Stima vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
CANC
11:00
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
5/9/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 32Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Western Stima36%
×Draw28%
Nzoia Sugar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.16
Nzoia Sugar
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Western Stima
0.98
Nzoia Sugar
1.02

allows per match

Western Stima
1.25
Nzoia Sugar
1.33

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
65%
Western Stima or Nzoia Sugar
72%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
64%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
15%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
69%
Western Stima 2+ goals
32%
Western Stima 3+ goals
11%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
68%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
32%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
51%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.33 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 0.98 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.02 + Western Stima defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Western Stima scores more
36%
level
28%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
35%

Western Stima at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Stima face Nzoia Sugar (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with Western Stima hosting Nzoia Sugar. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Western Stima host Nzoia Sugar at Moi Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.