Western Stima 0–1 Nairobi Stima: Result & Stats

Western Stima

FT

0 – 1

Nairobi Stima

5/13/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Western Stima50%

×Draw24%

Nairobi Stima25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western StimaExpected goals in this matchNairobi Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.11

Western Stima

1.66

Nairobi Stima

1.11

Western Stima creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.92

creates per match

1.60

0.62

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Western Stima

1.92

Nairobi Stima

1.60

allows per match

Western Stima

0.62

Nairobi Stima

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par

Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Nairobi Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw

75%

Western Stima or Nairobi Stima

76%

Draw or Nairobi Stima

50%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+

27%

Nairobi Stima wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals

81%

Western Stima 2+ goals

49%

Western Stima 3+ goals

23%

Nairobi Stima 1+ goals

67%

Nairobi Stima 2+ goals

30%

Nairobi Stima 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)

66%

Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Nairobi Stima away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 1.92 + Nairobi Stima defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.66

Nairobi Stima attack 1.60 + Western Stima defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Western Stima scores more

50%

level

24%

Nairobi Stima scores more

25%

Western Stima at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff