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Western Stima vs Kisumu All Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
CANC
00:00
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
3/22/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 26Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Western Stima61%
×Draw22%
Kisumu All Stars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.90
Kisumu All Stars
0.90

Western Stima creates 111% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 11 away

creates per match

Western Stima
0.98
Kisumu All Stars
0.55

allows per match

Western Stima
1.25
Kisumu All Stars
2.82

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
83%
Western Stima or Kisumu All Stars
78%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
39%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
36%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
85%
Western Stima 2+ goals
56%
Western Stima 3+ goals
29%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
59%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
23%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
78%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 0.98 + Kisumu All Stars defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.55 + Western Stima defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Western Stima scores more
61%
level
22%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
17%

Western Stima at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Stima vs Kisumu All Stars — Match Preview

Western Stima face Kisumu All Stars on March 22, 2020 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Western Stima host Kisumu All Stars at Moi Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.