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Western Stima vs Green Commandos — Super League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
4 – 0
Green Commandos
Green Commandos
5/2/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Western Stima67%
×Draw21%
Green Commandos12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.88
Green Commandos
0.63

Western Stima creates 198% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

Western Stima
2.00
Green Commandos
0.69

allows per match

Western Stima
0.57
Green Commandos
1.75

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Green Commandos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
88%
Western Stima or Green Commandos
79%
Draw or Green Commandos
33%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
41%
Green Commandos wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
85%
Western Stima 2+ goals
56%
Western Stima 3+ goals
29%
Green Commandos 1+ goals
47%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
13%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
85%
Green Commandos (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 2.00 + Green Commandos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Green Commandos attack 0.69 + Western Stima defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Western Stima scores more
67%
level
21%
Green Commandos scores more
12%

Western Stima at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Stima vs Green Commandos

Western Stima beat Green Commandos 4-0 in Super League on May 2, 2018.