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Western Stima vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
1 – 1
Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
Unknown 22'
Unknown 45'
2/1/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Western Stima46%
×Draw28%
Chemelil Sugar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.32
Chemelil Sugar
0.91

Western Stima creates 45% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 45 away

creates per match

Western Stima
0.98
Chemelil Sugar
0.56

allows per match

Western Stima
1.25
Chemelil Sugar
1.67

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Chemelil Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
74%
Western Stima or Chemelil Sugar
72%
Draw or Chemelil Sugar
54%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
21%
Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
73%
Western Stima 2+ goals
38%
Western Stima 3+ goals
15%
Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
60%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
23%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
64%
Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 0.98 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.56 + Western Stima defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Western Stima scores more
46%
level
28%
Chemelil Sugar scores more
26%

Western Stima at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
45'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Western Stima 1–1 Chemelil Sugar

Western Stima and Chemelil Sugar drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on February 1, 2020.

Goals: ? (22', 45').

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.