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Western Pride vs Surfers Paradise Apollo — Queensland Premier League 2026

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
2 – 5
Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
3/26/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 5Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Western Pride26%
×Draw21%
Surfers Paradise Apollo54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
1.49
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.21

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

creates per match

Western Pride
2.06
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.55

allows per match

Western Pride
1.87
Surfers Paradise Apollo
0.91

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Surfers Paradise Apollo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
46%
Western Pride or Surfers Paradise Apollo
79%
Draw or Surfers Paradise Apollo
74%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
12%
Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
77%
Western Pride 2+ goals
44%
Western Pride 3+ goals
19%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
89%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
65%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
32%
Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.87 · 31 matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 2.06 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.49

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.55 + Western Pride defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Western Pride scores more
26%
level
21%
Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
54%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Pride vs Surfers Paradise Apollo

Surfers Paradise Apollo beat Western Pride 5-2 in Queensland Premier League on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.