Western Pride 0–5 Moreton Bay United

Western Pride

FT

0 – 5

Moreton Bay United

4/17/2019

Queensland NPL · Round 11Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Western Pride27%

×Draw20%

Moreton Bay United53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western PrideExpected goals in this matchMoreton Bay United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.38

Western Pride

1.69

Moreton Bay United

2.38

Moreton Bay United creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 61 away

1.64

creates per match

2.05

2.71

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Western Pride

1.64

Moreton Bay United

2.05

allows per match

Western Pride

2.71

Moreton Bay United

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par

Moreton Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Moreton Bay United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw

47%

Western Pride or Moreton Bay United

80%

Draw or Moreton Bay United

73%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+

13%

Moreton Bay United wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals

82%

Western Pride 2+ goals

50%

Western Pride 3+ goals

24%

Moreton Bay United 1+ goals

91%

Moreton Bay United 2+ goals

68%

Moreton Bay United 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)

34%

Moreton Bay United (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Moreton Bay United away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.75 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 1.64 + Moreton Bay United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Moreton Bay United attack 2.05 + Western Pride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Western Pride scores more

27%

level

20%

Moreton Bay United scores more

53%

Moreton Bay United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Moreton Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff