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Western Pride vs Logan Lightning — Queensland Premier League 2026

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
2 – 2
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
7/30/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 19Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Western Pride44%
×Draw21%
Logan Lightning35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
2.08
Logan Lightning
1.85

Western Pride creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 44 away

creates per match

Western Pride
2.06
Logan Lightning
1.84

allows per match

Western Pride
1.87
Logan Lightning
2.09

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
65%
Western Pride or Logan Lightning
79%
Draw or Logan Lightning
56%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
25%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
87%
Western Pride 2+ goals
61%
Western Pride 3+ goals
34%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
84%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
55%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
56%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.87 · 31 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 2.06 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.08

Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + Western Pride defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Western Pride scores more
44%
level
21%
Logan Lightning scores more
35%

Western Pride at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Pride vs Logan Lightning

Western Pride and Logan Lightning drew 2-2 in Queensland Premier League on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.