Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Western Pride vs Gold Coast Knights — Queensland NPL 2026

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
2 – 3
Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
2/9/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 2Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Western Pride22%
×Draw19%
Gold Coast Knights58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
1.46
Gold Coast Knights
2.42

Gold Coast Knights creates 66% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 93 away

creates per match

Western Pride
1.64
Gold Coast Knights
2.12

allows per match

Western Pride
2.71
Gold Coast Knights
1.28

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Gold Coast Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
42%
Western Pride or Gold Coast Knights
81%
Draw or Gold Coast Knights
78%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
10%
Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
77%
Western Pride 2+ goals
43%
Western Pride 3+ goals
18%
Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
91%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
69%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
28%
Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Gold Coast Knights away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 1.64 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.12 + Western Pride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Western Pride scores more
22%
level
19%
Gold Coast Knights scores more
58%

Gold Coast Knights at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Pride vs Gold Coast Knights

Gold Coast Knights beat Western Pride 3-2 in Queensland NPL on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.