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Western Pride vs Albany Creek — Queensland Premier League 2026

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
0 – 2
Albany Creek
Albany Creek
5/6/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 9Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Western Pride41%
×Draw23%
Albany Creek36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
1.71
Albany Creek
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

creates per match

Western Pride
2.06
Albany Creek
1.27

allows per match

Western Pride
1.87
Albany Creek
1.36

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Albany Creek+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Albany Creek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
64%
Western Pride or Albany Creek
77%
Draw or Albany Creek
59%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
21%
Albany Creek wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
82%
Western Pride 2+ goals
51%
Western Pride 3+ goals
24%
Albany Creek 1+ goals
79%
Albany Creek 2+ goals
46%
Albany Creek 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
54%
Albany Creek (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.87 · 31 matches

Albany Creek away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 2.06 + Albany Creek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.71

Albany Creek attack 1.27 + Western Pride defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Western Pride scores more
41%
level
23%
Albany Creek scores more
36%

Western Pride at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Pride vs Albany Creek

Albany Creek beat Western Pride 2-0 in Queensland Premier League on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.