SZTK-Erima 2–0 Bajai: Result & Stats | NB II

SZTK-Erima

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bajai

B. Deutsch 89'

K. Pereira 77'

5/5/2013

NB II · Round 25Sport utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SZTK-Erima56%

×Draw26%

Bajai18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SZTK-ErimaExpected goals in this matchBajai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.74

SZTK-Erima

1.53

Bajai

0.74

SZTK-Erima creates 107% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

0.80

0.67

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

SZTK-Erima

1.67

Bajai

0.80

allows per match

SZTK-Erima

0.67

Bajai

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SZTK-Erima+0.00on par

Bajai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SZTK-Erima ↓

Bajai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SZTK-Erima or draw

82%

SZTK-Erima or Bajai

74%

Draw or Bajai

44%

Winning margin

SZTK-Erima wins by 2+

29%

Bajai wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

SZTK-Erima 1+ goals

78%

SZTK-Erima 2+ goals

45%

SZTK-Erima 3+ goals

20%

Bajai 1+ goals

52%

Bajai 2+ goals

17%

Bajai 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

SZTK-Erima (draw refunded)

76%

Bajai (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SZTK-Erima at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Bajai away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SZTK-Erima attack 1.67 + Bajai defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bajai attack 0.80 + SZTK-Erima defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SZTK-Erima scores more

56%

level

26%

Bajai scores more

18%

SZTK-Erima at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SZTK-Erima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

A. Besztercei← A. Fekete

67'

M. Szávuj← Á. Szentgyörgyi

71'

M. Doucouré← G. Urban

77'

K. Pereira

78'

L. Varga← D. Balázs

86'

G. Szamosszegi← K. Pereira

89'

B. Deutsch

SZTK-Erima

Bajai

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

60'▲A. Besztercei←▼A. Fekete

71'▲M. Doucouré←▼G. Urban

86'▲G. Szamosszegi←▼K. Pereira

SZTK-Erima substitutes

BeszterceiDoucouréSzamosszegiKornisSzabóTakács

67'▲M. Szávuj←▼Á. Szentgyörgyi

78'▲L. Varga←▼D. Balázs

Bajai substitutes

SzávujVargaTulipanDespotovic

NB II: SZTK-Erima 2–0 Bajai

SZTK-Erima beat Bajai 2-0 in NB II on May 5, 2013.

Goals: K. Pereira (77'), B. Deutsch (89').

The match was played at Sport utcai stadion.

SZTK-Erima vs Bajai — NB II 2012

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

NB II: SZTK-Erima 2–0 Bajai