Sarmiento Resistencia 3–0 Sol de América

Sarmiento Resistencia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sol de América

J. Cáceres 60', 48'

C. Fornillo 59'

11/13/2016

Torneo Federal A · Round 13Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sarmiento Resistencia51%

×Draw28%

Sol de América20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento ResistenciaExpected goals in this matchSol de América

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.72

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.33

Sol de América

0.72

Sarmiento Resistencia creates 85% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 54 away

1.27

creates per match

0.61

0.83

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.27

Sol de América

0.61

allows per match

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.83

Sol de América

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

Sol de América+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Resistencia ↓

Sol de América →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sarmiento Resistencia or draw

80%

Sarmiento Resistencia or Sol de América

72%

Draw or Sol de América

49%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+

25%

Sol de América wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals

74%

Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals

38%

Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals

15%

Sol de América 1+ goals

51%

Sol de América 2+ goals

16%

Sol de América 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)

72%

Sol de América (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Resistencia at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

Sol de América away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 1.27 + Sol de América defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sol de América attack 0.61 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more

51%

level

28%

Sol de América scores more

20%

Sarmiento Resistencia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sarmiento Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

R. Pérez← A. Bogliotti

46'

48'

56'

59'

60'

64'

F. Mendoza← R. García

67'

A. Barlessi← Á. Piz

78'

G. Espinoza← J. Romero

Sarmiento

Sol

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

Manager: R. Valdez

46'▲R. Pérez←▼A. Bogliotti

46'▲W. Encinas←▼F. López

67'▲A. Barlessi←▼Á. Piz

Sarmiento Resistencia substitutes

PérezEncinasBarlessi

Manager: O. Gómez

56'▲A. Cano←▼E. Filipigh

64'▲F. Mendoza←▼R. García

78'▲G. Espinoza←▼J. Romero

Sol de América substitutes

CanoMendozaEspinoza

Match Recap: Sarmiento Resistencia vs Sol de América

Sarmiento Resistencia beat Sol de América 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 13, 2016.

Goals: J. Cáceres (48', 60'), C. Fornillo (59').

The match was played at Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento in Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco.

Sarmiento Resistencia vs Sol de América — Torneo Federal A 2016

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sarmiento Resistencia vs Sol de América