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Sol de América vs Sarmiento Resistencia — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sol de América
Sol de América
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sarmiento Resistencia
Sarmiento Resistencia
5/19/2024Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group 4 - 10Estadio Club Sol de América Formosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sol de América53%
×Draw28%
Sarmiento Resistencia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sol de América
1.40
Sarmiento Resistencia
0.73

Sol de América creates 92% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 114 away

creates per match

Sol de América
1.58
Sarmiento Resistencia
0.86

allows per match

Sol de América
0.60
Sarmiento Resistencia
1.22

finishing

Sol de América+0.00on par
Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sol de América ↓

Sarmiento Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sol de América or draw
80%
Sol de América or Sarmiento Resistencia
72%
Draw or Sarmiento Resistencia
47%

Winning margin

Sol de América wins by 2+
26%
Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sol de América 1+ goals
75%
Sol de América 2+ goals
41%
Sol de América 3+ goals
17%
Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals
52%
Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals
17%
Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sol de América (draw refunded)
73%
Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sol de América at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.60 · 52 matches

Sarmiento Resistencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.22 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sol de América attack 1.58 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 0.86 + Sol de América defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sol de América scores more
53%
level
28%
Sarmiento Resistencia scores more
20%

Sol de América at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sol de América will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sol de América 1–0 Sarmiento Resistencia

Sol de América beat Sarmiento Resistencia 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Club Sol de América Formosa in Ciudad de Formosa, Provincia de Formosa.