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Western Mass Pioneers vs Union Omaha — US Open Cup 2018

Western Mass Pioneers
Western Mass Pioneers
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Union Omaha
Union Omaha
3/21/2024US Open CupUS Open Cup · 1st RoundLusitano Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Western Mass Pioneers25%
×Draw22%
Union Omaha53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Mass Pioneers
1.27
Union Omaha
1.93

Union Omaha creates 52% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Western Mass Pioneers
0.75
Union Omaha
2.10

allows per match

Western Mass Pioneers
1.75
Union Omaha
1.80

finishing

Western Mass Pioneers+0.00on par
Union Omaha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Mass Pioneers ↓

Union Omaha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Western Mass Pioneers or draw
47%
Western Mass Pioneers or Union Omaha
78%
Draw or Union Omaha
75%

Winning margin

Western Mass Pioneers wins by 2+
10%
Union Omaha wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Western Mass Pioneers 1+ goals
72%
Western Mass Pioneers 2+ goals
36%
Western Mass Pioneers 3+ goals
14%
Union Omaha 1+ goals
85%
Union Omaha 2+ goals
57%
Union Omaha 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Western Mass Pioneers (draw refunded)
32%
Union Omaha (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Mass Pioneers at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Union Omaha away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Mass Pioneers attack 0.75 + Union Omaha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Union Omaha attack 2.10 + Western Mass Pioneers defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Western Mass Pioneers scores more
25%
level
22%
Union Omaha scores more
53%

Union Omaha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union Omaha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Mass Pioneers vs Union Omaha

Union Omaha beat Western Mass Pioneers 4-0 in US Open Cup on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Lusitano Stadium in Ludlow, Massachusetts.