Westerhausen 4–0 Wacker Nordhausen: Result & Stats

Westerhausen

FT

4 – 0

Wacker Nordhausen

8/21/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 3Sportplatz Westerhausen I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Westerhausen46%

×Draw21%

Wacker Nordhausen33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WesterhausenExpected goals in this matchWacker Nordhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.69

Westerhausen

2.01

Wacker Nordhausen

1.69

Westerhausen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

1.82

creates per match

1.03

2.35

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Westerhausen

1.82

Wacker Nordhausen

1.03

allows per match

Westerhausen

2.35

Wacker Nordhausen

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Westerhausen+0.00on par

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westerhausen ↓

Wacker Nordhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Westerhausen or draw

67%

Westerhausen or Wacker Nordhausen

79%

Draw or Wacker Nordhausen

54%

Winning margin

Westerhausen wins by 2+

26%

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Westerhausen 1+ goals

87%

Westerhausen 2+ goals

59%

Westerhausen 3+ goals

32%

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals

82%

Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals

50%

Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Westerhausen (draw refunded)

58%

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westerhausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Wacker Nordhausen away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westerhausen attack 1.82 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.01

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.03 + Westerhausen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Westerhausen scores more

46%

level

21%

Wacker Nordhausen scores more

33%

Westerhausen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Westerhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff