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Westerhausen vs SC Freital — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Westerhausen
Westerhausen
FT
1 – 4
SC Freital
SC Freital
4/22/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Sportplatz Westerhausen I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Westerhausen32%
×Draw21%
SC Freital47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westerhausen
1.64
SC Freital
2.03

SC Freital creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

Westerhausen
1.82
SC Freital
1.71

allows per match

Westerhausen
2.35
SC Freital
1.45

finishing

Westerhausen+0.00on par
SC Freital+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westerhausen ↓

SC Freital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Westerhausen or draw
53%
Westerhausen or SC Freital
79%
Draw or SC Freital
68%

Winning margin

Westerhausen wins by 2+
15%
SC Freital wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Westerhausen 1+ goals
81%
Westerhausen 2+ goals
49%
Westerhausen 3+ goals
23%
SC Freital 1+ goals
87%
SC Freital 2+ goals
60%
SC Freital 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Westerhausen (draw refunded)
40%
SC Freital (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westerhausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

SC Freital away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.45 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westerhausen attack 1.82 + SC Freital defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

SC Freital attack 1.71 + Westerhausen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Westerhausen scores more
32%
level
21%
SC Freital scores more
47%

SC Freital at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SC Freital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Westerhausen 1–4 SC Freital

SC Freital beat Westerhausen 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Westerhausen I in Thale.