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Westerhausen vs Einheit Wernigerode — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Westerhausen
Westerhausen
FT
1 – 1
Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
9/10/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 5Sportplatz Westerhausen I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Westerhausen42%
×Draw21%
Einheit Wernigerode37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westerhausen
2.02
Einheit Wernigerode
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 77 away

creates per match

Westerhausen
1.82
Einheit Wernigerode
1.39

allows per match

Westerhausen
2.35
Einheit Wernigerode
2.21

finishing

Westerhausen+0.00on par
Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westerhausen ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Westerhausen or draw
63%
Westerhausen or Einheit Wernigerode
79%
Draw or Einheit Wernigerode
58%

Winning margin

Westerhausen wins by 2+
23%
Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Westerhausen 1+ goals
87%
Westerhausen 2+ goals
60%
Westerhausen 3+ goals
33%
Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
85%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
56%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Westerhausen (draw refunded)
54%
Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westerhausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westerhausen attack 1.82 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.02

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + Westerhausen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Westerhausen scores more
42%
level
21%
Einheit Wernigerode scores more
37%

Westerhausen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Westerhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Westerhausen 1–1 Einheit Wernigerode

Westerhausen and Einheit Wernigerode drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Westerhausen I in Thale.