Westerhausen 4–3 Blau-Weiß Zorbau: Result & Stats

Westerhausen

FT

4 – 3

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

5/7/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 30Sportplatz Westerhausen I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Westerhausen43%

×Draw21%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WesterhausenExpected goals in this matchBlau-Weiß Zorbau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.85

Westerhausen

2.06

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.85

Westerhausen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

1.82

creates per match

1.36

2.35

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Westerhausen

1.82

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.36

allows per match

Westerhausen

2.35

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Westerhausen+0.00on par

Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westerhausen ↓

Blau-Weiß Zorbau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Westerhausen or draw

65%

Westerhausen or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

79%

Draw or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

57%

Winning margin

Westerhausen wins by 2+

24%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Westerhausen 1+ goals

87%

Westerhausen 2+ goals

61%

Westerhausen 3+ goals

34%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals

84%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals

55%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Westerhausen (draw refunded)

55%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westerhausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westerhausen attack 1.82 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.06

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.36 + Westerhausen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Westerhausen scores more

43%

level

21%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more

35%

Westerhausen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Westerhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff