Westerhausen 1–3 Auerbach: Result & Stats

Westerhausen

FT

1 – 3

Auerbach

5/20/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 32Sportplatz Westerhausen I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Westerhausen29%

×Draw21%

Auerbach50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WesterhausenExpected goals in this matchAuerbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.07

Westerhausen

1.54

Auerbach

2.07

Auerbach creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

1.82

creates per match

1.79

2.35

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Westerhausen

1.82

Auerbach

1.79

allows per match

Westerhausen

2.35

Auerbach

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Westerhausen+0.00on par

Auerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westerhausen ↓

Auerbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Westerhausen or draw

50%

Westerhausen or Auerbach

79%

Draw or Auerbach

71%

Winning margin

Westerhausen wins by 2+

13%

Auerbach wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Westerhausen 1+ goals

79%

Westerhausen 2+ goals

45%

Westerhausen 3+ goals

20%

Auerbach 1+ goals

87%

Auerbach 2+ goals

61%

Auerbach 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Westerhausen (draw refunded)

37%

Auerbach (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westerhausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Auerbach away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westerhausen attack 1.82 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Auerbach attack 1.79 + Westerhausen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Westerhausen scores more

29%

level

21%

Auerbach scores more

50%

Auerbach at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff