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Ravshan vs Parvoz — Vysshaya Liga 2016

Ravshan
Ravshan
FT
3 – 3
Parvoz
Parvoz
5/21/2016Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 7Stadion im. Langari Langarieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ravshan64%
×Draw22%
Parvoz14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan
1.82
Parvoz
0.72

Ravshan creates 153% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ravshan
1.28
Parvoz
0.61

allows per match

Ravshan
0.84
Parvoz
2.36

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par
Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Parvoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw
86%
Ravshan or Parvoz
78%
Draw or Parvoz
36%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+
37%
Parvoz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals
84%
Ravshan 2+ goals
54%
Ravshan 3+ goals
27%
Parvoz 1+ goals
51%
Parvoz 2+ goals
16%
Parvoz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)
82%
Parvoz (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.28 + Parvoz defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.82

Parvoz attack 0.61 + Ravshan defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ravshan scores more
64%
level
22%
Parvoz scores more
14%

Ravshan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Ravshan 3–3 Parvoz

Ravshan and Parvoz drew 3-3 in Vysshaya Liga on May 21, 2016.

The match was played at Stadion im. Langari Langarieva in Kulyab.