CSKA Pomir 3–2 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

CSKA Pomir

FT

3 – 2

Istiqlol

11/4/2019

Vysshaya Liga · Round 21Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CSKA Pomir30%

×Draw23%

Istiqlol48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA PomirExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.87

CSKA Pomir

1.43

Istiqlol

1.87

Istiqlol creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

2.00

creates per match

2.27

1.47

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

CSKA Pomir

2.00

Istiqlol

2.27

allows per match

CSKA Pomir

1.47

Istiqlol

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw

52%

CSKA Pomir or Istiqlol

77%

Draw or Istiqlol

70%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+

13%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals

76%

CSKA Pomir 2+ goals

42%

CSKA Pomir 3+ goals

17%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

85%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

56%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)

38%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 2.00 + Istiqlol defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Istiqlol attack 2.27 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more

30%

level

23%

Istiqlol scores more

48%

Istiqlol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff