Khatlon 0–1 Istaravshan: Result & Stats

Khatlon

FT

0 – 1

Istaravshan

8/23/2014

Vysshaya Liga · Round 11Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Khatlon58%

×Draw24%

Istaravshan18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhatlonExpected goals in this matchIstaravshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.81

Khatlon

1.68

Istaravshan

0.81

Khatlon creates 107% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 23 away

1.48

creates per match

0.65

0.97

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Khatlon

1.48

Istaravshan

0.65

allows per match

Khatlon

0.97

Istaravshan

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par

Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Istaravshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw

82%

Khatlon or Istaravshan

76%

Draw or Istaravshan

42%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+

32%

Istaravshan wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals

81%

Khatlon 2+ goals

50%

Khatlon 3+ goals

24%

Istaravshan 1+ goals

56%

Istaravshan 2+ goals

19%

Istaravshan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)

76%

Istaravshan (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.48 + Istaravshan defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

Istaravshan attack 0.65 + Khatlon defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Khatlon scores more

58%

level

24%

Istaravshan scores more

18%

Khatlon at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff