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Istaravshan vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Istaravshan
Istaravshan
FT
2 – 1
Khatlon
Khatlon
5/18/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 7Stadion Istaravshan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Istaravshan36%
×Draw28%
Khatlon36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istaravshan
1.17
Khatlon
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

creates per match

Istaravshan
1.13
Khatlon
1.06

allows per match

Istaravshan
1.27
Khatlon
1.21

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw
64%
Istaravshan or Khatlon
72%
Draw or Khatlon
64%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+
15%
Khatlon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals
69%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
33%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
11%
Khatlon 1+ goals
69%
Khatlon 2+ goals
33%
Khatlon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)
50%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Khatlon away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.13 + Khatlon defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Khatlon attack 1.06 + Istaravshan defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Istaravshan scores more
36%
level
28%
Khatlon scores more
36%

Istaravshan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Istaravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istaravshan vs Khatlon

Istaravshan beat Khatlon 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Istaravshan in Istaravshan.