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Banbridge Town vs Tobermore United — Premier Intermediate League 2017

Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
FT
5 – 1
Tobermore United
Tobermore United
5/4/2018Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Promotion Round - 5Crystal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Banbridge Town63%
×Draw20%
Tobermore United17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banbridge Town
2.22
Tobermore United
1.06

Banbridge Town creates 109% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Banbridge Town
1.75
Tobermore United
0.88

allows per match

Banbridge Town
1.25
Tobermore United
2.69

finishing

Banbridge Town+0.00on par
Tobermore United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banbridge Town ↓

Tobermore United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Banbridge Town or draw
83%
Banbridge Town or Tobermore United
80%
Draw or Tobermore United
37%

Winning margin

Banbridge Town wins by 2+
40%
Tobermore United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Banbridge Town 1+ goals
89%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
65%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
38%
Tobermore United 1+ goals
65%
Tobermore United 2+ goals
29%
Tobermore United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
79%
Tobermore United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banbridge Town at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Tobermore United away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banbridge Town attack 1.75 + Tobermore United defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.22

Tobermore United attack 0.88 + Banbridge Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Banbridge Town scores more
63%
level
20%
Tobermore United scores more
17%

Banbridge Town at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Banbridge Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banbridge Town vs Tobermore United

Banbridge Town beat Tobermore United 5-1 in Premier Intermediate League on May 4, 2018.

The match was played at Crystal Park in Banbridge.