Banbridge Town 2–0 Tobermore United: Result & Stats

Banbridge Town

FT

2 – 0

Tobermore United

3/15/2025

League #561 · Round 19Crystal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Banbridge Town57%

×Draw21%

Tobermore United22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banbridge TownExpected goals in this matchTobermore United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.25

Banbridge Town

2.13

Tobermore United

1.25

Banbridge Town creates 70% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.79

creates per match

1.04

1.46

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Banbridge Town

1.79

Tobermore United

1.04

allows per match

Banbridge Town

1.46

Tobermore United

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Tobermore United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banbridge Town ↓

Tobermore United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Banbridge Town or draw

78%

Banbridge Town or Tobermore United

79%

Draw or Tobermore United

43%

Winning margin

Banbridge Town wins by 2+

35%

Tobermore United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Banbridge Town 1+ goals

88%

Banbridge Town 2+ goals

63%

Banbridge Town 3+ goals

35%

Tobermore United 1+ goals

71%

Tobermore United 2+ goals

36%

Tobermore United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Banbridge Town (draw refunded)

72%

Tobermore United (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banbridge Town at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Tobermore United away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banbridge Town attack 1.79 + Tobermore United defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.13

Tobermore United attack 1.04 + Banbridge Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Banbridge Town scores more

57%

level

21%

Tobermore United scores more

22%

Banbridge Town at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Banbridge Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff