Lisburn Distillery 1–2 Queen's University

Lisburn Distillery

FT

1 – 2

Queen's University

5/1/2018

Premier Intermediate League · Promotion Round - 4New Grosvenor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lisburn Distillery24%

×Draw23%

Queen's University53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lisburn DistilleryExpected goals in this matchQueen's University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.80

Lisburn Distillery

1.13

Queen's University

1.80

Queen's University creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

2.11

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Lisburn Distillery

1.00

Queen's University

1.50

allows per match

Lisburn Distillery

2.11

Queen's University

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Queen's University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Distillery ↓

Queen's University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lisburn Distillery or draw

47%

Lisburn Distillery or Queen's University

77%

Draw or Queen's University

76%

Winning margin

Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+

9%

Queen's University wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals

68%

Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals

31%

Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals

11%

Queen's University 1+ goals

83%

Queen's University 2+ goals

54%

Queen's University 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)

31%

Queen's University (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Distillery at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Queen's University away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.00 + Queen's University defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Queen's University attack 1.50 + Lisburn Distillery defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lisburn Distillery scores more

24%

level

23%

Queen's University scores more

53%

Queen's University at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Queen's University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff