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Queen's University vs Lisburn Distillery — League #561 2026

Queen's University
Queen's University
FT
1 – 1
Lisburn Distillery
Lisburn Distillery
1/27/2024League #561League #561 · Round 16Queen's University Malone Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Queen's University58%
×Draw20%
Lisburn Distillery23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen's University
2.31
Lisburn Distillery
1.40

Queen's University creates 65% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Queen's University
2.63
Lisburn Distillery
1.79

allows per match

Queen's University
1.00
Lisburn Distillery
2.00

finishing

Queen's University+0.00on par
Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's University ↓

Lisburn Distillery →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Queen's University or draw
77%
Queen's University or Lisburn Distillery
80%
Draw or Lisburn Distillery
42%

Winning margin

Queen's University wins by 2+
36%
Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Queen's University 1+ goals
90%
Queen's University 2+ goals
67%
Queen's University 3+ goals
40%
Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals
75%
Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals
41%
Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Queen's University (draw refunded)
72%
Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's University at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Lisburn Distillery away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's University attack 2.63 + Lisburn Distillery defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.79 + Queen's University defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Queen's University scores more
58%
level
20%
Lisburn Distillery scores more
23%

Queen's University at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Queen's University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Queen's University 1–1 Lisburn Distillery

Queen's University and Lisburn Distillery drew 1-1 in League #561 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Queen's University Malone Playing Fields in Belfast.