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Westchester Flames vs New York RB III — USL League Two 2018

Westchester Flames
Westchester Flames
FT
1 – 2
New York RB III
New York RB III
6/19/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 31Skidelsky Field at City Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Westchester Flames30%
×Draw24%
New York RB III46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westchester Flames
1.31
New York RB III
1.66

New York RB III creates 27% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Westchester Flames
1.55
New York RB III
1.07

allows per match

Westchester Flames
2.24
New York RB III
1.07

finishing

Westchester Flames+0.00on par
New York RB III+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westchester Flames ↓

New York RB III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Westchester Flames or draw
54%
Westchester Flames or New York RB III
76%
Draw or New York RB III
70%

Winning margin

Westchester Flames wins by 2+
13%
New York RB III wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Westchester Flames 1+ goals
73%
Westchester Flames 2+ goals
38%
Westchester Flames 3+ goals
14%
New York RB III 1+ goals
81%
New York RB III 2+ goals
49%
New York RB III 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Westchester Flames (draw refunded)
40%
New York RB III (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westchester Flames at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.24 · 42 matches

New York RB III away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westchester Flames attack 1.55 + New York RB III defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

New York RB III attack 1.07 + Westchester Flames defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Westchester Flames scores more
30%
level
24%
New York RB III scores more
46%

New York RB III at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Westchester Flames 1–2 New York RB III

New York RB III beat Westchester Flames 2-1 in USL League Two on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Skidelsky Field at City Park Stadium in New York.