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Westchester Flames vs FC Motown — USL League Two 2018

Westchester Flames
Westchester Flames
FT
0 – 3
FC Motown
FC Motown
6/16/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 28Skidelsky Field at City Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Westchester Flames29%
×Draw23%
FC Motown48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westchester Flames
1.34
FC Motown
1.77

FC Motown creates 32% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 7 away

creates per match

Westchester Flames
1.55
FC Motown
1.29

allows per match

Westchester Flames
2.24
FC Motown
1.14

finishing

Westchester Flames+0.00on par
FC Motown+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westchester Flames ↓

FC Motown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Westchester Flames or draw
52%
Westchester Flames or FC Motown
77%
Draw or FC Motown
71%

Winning margin

Westchester Flames wins by 2+
13%
FC Motown wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Westchester Flames 1+ goals
74%
Westchester Flames 2+ goals
39%
Westchester Flames 3+ goals
15%
FC Motown 1+ goals
83%
FC Motown 2+ goals
53%
FC Motown 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Westchester Flames (draw refunded)
38%
FC Motown (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westchester Flames at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.24 · 42 matches

FC Motown away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westchester Flames attack 1.55 + FC Motown defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Motown attack 1.29 + Westchester Flames defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Westchester Flames scores more
29%
level
23%
FC Motown scores more
48%

FC Motown at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Motown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Westchester Flames 0 – 3 FC Motown

FC Motown beat Westchester Flames 3-0 in USL League Two on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at Skidelsky Field at City Park Stadium in New York.