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Westchester Flames vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

Westchester Flames
Westchester Flames
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
6/17/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Eastern Conference - 14Skidelsky Field at City Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Westchester Flames43%
×Draw22%
FA Euro New York35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westchester Flames
1.90
FA Euro New York
1.70

Westchester Flames creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

creates per match

Westchester Flames
1.55
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

Westchester Flames
2.24
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

Westchester Flames+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westchester Flames ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Westchester Flames or draw
65%
Westchester Flames or FA Euro New York
78%
Draw or FA Euro New York
57%

Winning margin

Westchester Flames wins by 2+
23%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Westchester Flames 1+ goals
85%
Westchester Flames 2+ goals
56%
Westchester Flames 3+ goals
29%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
82%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
51%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Westchester Flames (draw refunded)
55%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westchester Flames at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.24 · 42 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westchester Flames attack 1.55 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.90

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + Westchester Flames defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Westchester Flames scores more
43%
level
22%
FA Euro New York scores more
35%

Westchester Flames at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Westchester Flames will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Westchester Flames 1–0 FA Euro New York

Westchester Flames beat FA Euro New York 1-0 in USL League Two on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Skidelsky Field at City Park Stadium in New York.