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West Virginia Alliance vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

West Virginia Alliance
West Virginia Alliance
FT
0 – 0
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
6/16/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1Shawnee Park Multi Sports Complex (Dunbar, West Virginia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

West Virginia Alliance49%
×Draw24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Virginia Alliance
1.69
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.18

West Virginia Alliance creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 5 away

creates per match

West Virginia Alliance
2.18
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.00

allows per match

West Virginia Alliance
1.36
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.20

finishing

West Virginia Alliance+0.00on par
Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Virginia Alliance ↓

Cincinnati Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

West Virginia Alliance or draw
73%
West Virginia Alliance or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
76%
Draw or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
51%

Winning margin

West Virginia Alliance wins by 2+
26%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

West Virginia Alliance 1+ goals
82%
West Virginia Alliance 2+ goals
50%
West Virginia Alliance 3+ goals
24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
69%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
33%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

West Virginia Alliance (draw refunded)
65%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Virginia Alliance at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Virginia Alliance attack 2.18 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 1.00 + West Virginia Alliance defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

West Virginia Alliance scores more
49%
level
24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
27%

West Virginia Alliance at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "West Virginia Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: West Virginia Alliance 0–0 Cincinnati Dutch Lions

West Virginia Alliance and Cincinnati Dutch Lions drew 0-0 in USL League Two on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Shawnee Park Multi Sports Complex (Dunbar, West Virginia).