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West Virginia Alliance vs Chicago Fire II — USL League Two 2018

West Virginia Alliance
West Virginia Alliance
FT
0 – 1
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
6/29/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 6Shawnee Park Multi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

West Virginia Alliance33%
×Draw21%
Chicago Fire II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Virginia Alliance
1.71
Chicago Fire II
2.06

Chicago Fire II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 21 away

creates per match

West Virginia Alliance
2.18
Chicago Fire II
2.76

allows per match

West Virginia Alliance
1.36
Chicago Fire II
1.24

finishing

West Virginia Alliance+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Virginia Alliance ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

West Virginia Alliance or draw
54%
West Virginia Alliance or Chicago Fire II
79%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
67%

Winning margin

West Virginia Alliance wins by 2+
16%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

West Virginia Alliance 1+ goals
82%
West Virginia Alliance 2+ goals
51%
West Virginia Alliance 3+ goals
24%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
87%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
61%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

West Virginia Alliance (draw refunded)
41%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Virginia Alliance at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Virginia Alliance attack 2.18 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chicago Fire II attack 2.76 + West Virginia Alliance defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

West Virginia Alliance scores more
33%
level
21%
Chicago Fire II scores more
46%

Chicago Fire II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

West Virginia Alliance 0 – 1 Chicago Fire II

Chicago Fire II beat West Virginia Alliance 1-0 in USL League Two on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Shawnee Park Multi Sports Complex.