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West Seattle Junction vs United PDX — USL League Two 2018

West Seattle Junction
West Seattle Junction
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
United PDX
United PDX
5/26/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 4Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

West Seattle Junction38%
×Draw22%
United PDX40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Seattle Junction
1.77
United PDX
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

West Seattle Junction
2.05
United PDX
1.64

allows per match

West Seattle Junction
2.00
United PDX
1.50

finishing

West Seattle Junction+0.00on par
United PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Seattle Junction ↓

United PDX →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

West Seattle Junction or draw
60%
West Seattle Junction or United PDX
78%
Draw or United PDX
62%

Winning margin

West Seattle Junction wins by 2+
20%
United PDX wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

West Seattle Junction 1+ goals
83%
West Seattle Junction 2+ goals
53%
West Seattle Junction 3+ goals
26%
United PDX 1+ goals
84%
United PDX 2+ goals
54%
United PDX 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

West Seattle Junction (draw refunded)
49%
United PDX (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Seattle Junction at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

United PDX away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Seattle Junction attack 2.05 + United PDX defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

United PDX attack 1.64 + West Seattle Junction defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Seattle Junction scores more
38%
level
22%
United PDX scores more
40%

United PDX at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "United PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Seattle Junction vs United PDX

West Seattle Junction and United PDX drew 1-1 in USL League Two on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Seattle, Washington.