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West Ham W vs Yeovil Town W — FA WSL 2018

West Ham W
West Ham W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yeovil Town W
Yeovil Town W
9/30/2018FA WSLFA WSL · Round 3The Rush Green Stadium (Romford, Greater London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

West Ham W50%
×Draw23%
Yeovil Town W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham W
1.77
Yeovil Town W
1.21

West Ham W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 10 away

creates per match

West Ham W
1.14
Yeovil Town W
0.70

allows per match

West Ham W
1.73
Yeovil Town W
2.40

finishing

West Ham W+0.00on par
Yeovil Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham W ↓

Yeovil Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

West Ham W or draw
74%
West Ham W or Yeovil Town W
77%
Draw or Yeovil Town W
50%

Winning margin

West Ham W wins by 2+
28%
Yeovil Town W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

West Ham W 1+ goals
83%
West Ham W 2+ goals
53%
West Ham W 3+ goals
26%
Yeovil Town W 1+ goals
70%
Yeovil Town W 2+ goals
34%
Yeovil Town W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

West Ham W (draw refunded)
66%
Yeovil Town W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 83 matches

Yeovil Town W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham W attack 1.14 + Yeovil Town W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Yeovil Town W attack 0.70 + West Ham W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

West Ham W scores more
50%
level
23%
Yeovil Town W scores more
26%

West Ham W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "West Ham W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Ham W vs Yeovil Town W

West Ham W beat Yeovil Town W 2-1 in FA WSL on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at The Rush Green Stadium (Romford, Greater London).