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West Ham W vs Tottenham Hotspur W — FA WSL 2018

West Ham W
West Ham W
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
1/21/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 11Chigwell Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

West Ham W39%
×Draw24%
Tottenham Hotspur W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham W
1.58
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 74 away

creates per match

West Ham W
1.14
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.32

allows per match

West Ham W
1.73
Tottenham Hotspur W
2.03

finishing

West Ham W+0.00on par
Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham W ↓

Tottenham Hotspur W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

West Ham W or draw
63%
West Ham W or Tottenham Hotspur W
76%
Draw or Tottenham Hotspur W
61%

Winning margin

West Ham W wins by 2+
19%
Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

West Ham W 1+ goals
79%
West Ham W 2+ goals
47%
West Ham W 3+ goals
21%
Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
78%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
45%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

West Ham W (draw refunded)
52%
Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 83 matches

Tottenham Hotspur W away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.03 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham W attack 1.14 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.32 + West Ham W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

West Ham W scores more
39%
level
24%
Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
37%

West Ham W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "West Ham W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: West Ham W 3–4 Tottenham Hotspur W

Tottenham Hotspur W beat West Ham W 4-3 in FA WSL on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Chigwell Construction Stadium in Dagenham, Essex.