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Tottenham Hotspur W vs West Ham W — FA WSL 2018

Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
West Ham W
West Ham W
11/3/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 6Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W46%
×Draw24%
West Ham W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.62
West Ham W
1.27

Tottenham Hotspur W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.14
West Ham W
1.11

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.43
West Ham W
2.10

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par
West Ham W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

West Ham W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw
70%
Tottenham Hotspur W or West Ham W
76%
Draw or West Ham W
54%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
23%
West Ham W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
80%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
48%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
22%
West Ham W 1+ goals
72%
West Ham W 2+ goals
36%
West Ham W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
60%
West Ham W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

West Ham W away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.14 + West Ham W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.62

West Ham W attack 1.11 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
46%
level
24%
West Ham W scores more
30%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Tottenham Hotspur W 2–1 West Ham W

Tottenham Hotspur W beat West Ham W 2-1 in FA WSL on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Gaughan Group Stadium in London.