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West Ham W vs Manchester United W — FA WSL 2018

West Ham W
West Ham W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Manchester United W
Manchester United W
3/3/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 15Chigwell Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

West Ham W24%
×Draw24%
Manchester United W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham W
1.07
Manchester United W
1.71

Manchester United W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 73 away

creates per match

West Ham W
1.14
Manchester United W
1.68

allows per match

West Ham W
1.73
Manchester United W
1.01

finishing

West Ham W+0.00on par
Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham W ↓

Manchester United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

West Ham W or draw
48%
West Ham W or Manchester United W
76%
Draw or Manchester United W
76%

Winning margin

West Ham W wins by 2+
9%
Manchester United W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

West Ham W 1+ goals
66%
West Ham W 2+ goals
29%
West Ham W 3+ goals
9%
Manchester United W 1+ goals
82%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
51%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

West Ham W (draw refunded)
31%
Manchester United W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 83 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham W attack 1.14 + Manchester United W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Manchester United W attack 1.68 + West Ham W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

West Ham W scores more
24%
level
24%
Manchester United W scores more
52%

Manchester United W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: West Ham W 1–1 Manchester United W

West Ham W and Manchester United W drew 1-1 in FA WSL on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Chigwell Construction Stadium in Dagenham, Essex.