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West Ham W vs Chelsea W — FA WSL 2018

West Ham W
West Ham W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chelsea W
Chelsea W
3/24/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 17Chigwell Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

West Ham W14%
×Draw19%
Chelsea W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham W
0.92
Chelsea W
2.22

Chelsea W creates 141% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

creates per match

West Ham W
1.14
Chelsea W
2.71

allows per match

West Ham W
1.73
Chelsea W
0.70

finishing

West Ham W+0.00on par
Chelsea W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham W ↓

Chelsea W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

West Ham W or draw
33%
West Ham W or Chelsea W
81%
Draw or Chelsea W
86%

Winning margin

West Ham W wins by 2+
5%
Chelsea W wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

West Ham W 1+ goals
60%
West Ham W 2+ goals
23%
West Ham W 3+ goals
7%
Chelsea W 1+ goals
89%
Chelsea W 2+ goals
65%
Chelsea W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

West Ham W (draw refunded)
18%
Chelsea W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 83 matches

Chelsea W away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham W attack 1.14 + Chelsea W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.92

Chelsea W attack 2.71 + West Ham W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

West Ham W scores more
14%
level
19%
Chelsea W scores more
67%

Chelsea W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: West Ham W 0–2 Chelsea W

Chelsea W beat West Ham W 2-0 in FA WSL on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Chigwell Construction Stadium in Dagenham, Essex.