West Ham 2–1 Wolves: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

J. Bowen 72'

T. Souček 54'

M. Doherty 69'

12/9/2024

Premier League · Round 15London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

West Ham45%

×Draw26%

Wolves28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.09

West Ham

1.45

Wolves

1.09

West Ham creates 33% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

1.29

creates per match

0.82

1.36

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

West Ham

1.29

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

West Ham

1.36

Wolves

1.60

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.06on par

Wolves-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

72%

West Ham or Wolves

74%

Draw or Wolves

55%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

22%

Wolves wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

77%

West Ham 2+ goals

42%

West Ham 3+ goals

18%

Wolves 1+ goals

66%

Wolves 2+ goals

30%

Wolves 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

61%

Wolves (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 23 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.60 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.29 + Wolves defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Wolves attack 0.82 + West Ham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Ham scores more

45%

level

26%

Wolves scores more

28%

West Ham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Bowen

West Ham · F

8.2

Match Events

45'

45+1'

49'

50'

54'

62'

Mohammed KudusGoal cancelled

62'

Gonçalo Guedes← J. Strand Larsen

62'

J. Bellegarde← André

63'

João Gomes

64'

Lucas Paquetá← Carlos Soler

69'

M. Doherty↳ R. Aït-Nouri

72'

J. Bowen↳ M. Kudus

73'

D. Ings← C. Summerville

78'

T. Doyle← João Gomes

86'

Rodrigo Gomes← R. Aït-Nouri

87'

G. Rodríguez← M. Kudus

88'

J. Todibo← E. Álvarez

88'

A. Cresswell← Emerson

90+10'

90+5'

90+4'

90+10'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestWolves

Overview

54%Possession46%

19Total Shots19

0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.47

11Corners0

12Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots19

4On Target5

6Off Target7

9Blocked7

15Inside Box12

4Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

432Total Passes377

349Accurate Passes290

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-1.56Goals Prevented-1.56

Discipline

12Fouls17

5Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1