West Ham 2–0 Wolves: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wolves

J. Bowen 54'

G. Scamacca 29'

10/1/2022

Premier League · Round 9London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

West Ham46%

×Draw26%

Wolves28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.07

West Ham

1.45

Wolves

1.07

West Ham creates 36% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

1.30

creates per match

0.78

1.36

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

West Ham

1.30

Wolves

0.78

allows per match

West Ham

1.36

Wolves

1.59

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.02on par

Wolves-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

72%

West Ham or Wolves

74%

Draw or Wolves

54%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

22%

Wolves wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

77%

West Ham 2+ goals

42%

West Ham 3+ goals

18%

Wolves 1+ goals

66%

Wolves 2+ goals

29%

Wolves 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

62%

Wolves (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.59 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.30 + Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Wolves attack 0.78 + West Ham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

West Ham scores more

46%

level

26%

Wolves scores more

28%

West Ham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Bowen

West Ham · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

Rúben Neves

22'

João Moutinho

24'

Adama Traoré← Pedro Neto

29'

G. Scamacca

34'

Pablo Fornals← M. Cornet

52'

Declan Rice

54'

J. Bowen

58'

Diego Costa← Gonçalo Guedes

66'

M. Antonio← G. Scamacca

72'

C. Campbell← Matheus Nunes

73'

B. Traoré← Nélson Semedo

74'

Emerson← Lucas Paquetá

83'

Aaron Cresswell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestWolves

Overview

39%Possession61%

18Total Shots15

1Corners6

8Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots15

5On Target4

5Off Target7

8Blocked4

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box10

Passing

39%Possession61%

372Total Passes564

301Accurate Passes492

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1