West Ham 0–2 Wolves: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

Pedro Neto 84'

R. Jiménez 73'

6/20/2020

Premier League · Round 30London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

West Ham46%

×Draw25%

Wolves29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.17

West Ham

1.55

Wolves

1.17

West Ham creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 31 away

1.38

creates per match

0.82

1.51

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

West Ham

1.38

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

West Ham

1.51

Wolves

1.72

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

71%

West Ham or Wolves

75%

Draw or Wolves

54%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

23%

Wolves wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

79%

West Ham 2+ goals

46%

West Ham 3+ goals

20%

Wolves 1+ goals

69%

Wolves 2+ goals

33%

Wolves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

62%

Wolves (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.55

Wolves attack 0.82 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

West Ham scores more

46%

level

25%

Wolves scores more

29%

West Ham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Jiménez

Wolves · F

7.8

Match Events

57'

João Moutinho

62'

Michail Antonio

64'

Pedro Neto← Diogo Jota

64'

Adama Traoré← L. Dendoncker

67'

M. Lanzini← Felipe Anderson

73'

R. Jiménez↳ Adama Traoré

81'

A. Yarmolenko← Pablo Fornals

81'

R. Fredericks← J. Ngakia

84'

Pedro Neto↳ M. Doherty

90+2'

M. Gibbs-White← R. Jiménez

90'

Rúben Vinagre← Jonny Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestWolves

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots10

5Corners7

8Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target6

2Off Target1

3Blocked3

3Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

357Total Passes506

272Accurate Passes414

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1