Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

West Ham vs West Brom — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
2/11/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

West Ham45%
×Draw26%
West Brom29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.48
West Brom
1.14

West Ham creates 30% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 93 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.46
West Brom
0.83

allows per match

West Ham
1.44
West Brom
1.51

finishing

West Ham+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
71%
West Ham or West Brom
74%
Draw or West Brom
55%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
22%
West Brom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
77%
West Ham 2+ goals
43%
West Ham 3+ goals
19%
West Brom 1+ goals
68%
West Brom 2+ goals
32%
West Brom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
61%
West Brom (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.44 · 202 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.51 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.46 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

West Brom attack 0.83 + West Ham defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Ham scores more
45%
level
26%
West Brom scores more
29%

West Ham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Ham vs West Brom

West Ham and West Brom drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 11, 2017.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.