West Ham 1–0 Watford: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

J. Bowen 68'

2/8/2022

Premier League · Round 24London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

West Ham47%

×Draw25%

Watford28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.19

West Ham

1.61

Watford

1.19

West Ham creates 35% more chances

Season form · 203 home / 114 away

1.45

creates per match

0.96

1.42

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

West Ham

1.45

Watford

0.96

allows per match

West Ham

1.42

Watford

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Ham+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

72%

West Ham or Watford

75%

Draw or Watford

53%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

24%

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

80%

West Ham 2+ goals

48%

West Ham 3+ goals

22%

Watford 1+ goals

70%

Watford 2+ goals

33%

Watford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

63%

Watford (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 203 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.77 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.45 + Watford defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Watford attack 0.96 + West Ham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

West Ham scores more

47%

level

25%

Watford scores more

28%

West Ham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Bowen

West Ham · M

8.5

Match Events

60'

M. Lanzini← S. Benrahma

68'

J. Bowen↳ M. Lanzini

77'

João Pedro← T. Cleverley

77'

I. Louza← E. Kayembe

78'

J. Ngakia← Kiko Femenía

83'

Vladimír Coufal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestWatford

Overview

64%Possession36%

9Total Shots6

5Corners6

1Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots6

3On Target1

4Off Target4

2Blocked1

8Inside Box2

1Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

609Total Passes335

489Accurate Passes235

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

1Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1